Nicholas Stuart | Anthony Albanese's biggest threat isn't Peter Dutton. It's a system keeping us all unfulfilled

It's a curse which actually began back in 1984. Back then Bob Hawke did manage to hold onto office for almost another decade, but the decision to rush to an early election saw that massive majority decisively whittled away the first time he faced the people.

Next, although Paul Keating managed one victory after toppling Hawke with an internal coup in 1993, he lost decisively after that initial full term of office.

The first time John Howard faced the people as PM, he actually lost the popular vote. Although going on to become the country's second-longest serving prime minister (after Robert Menzies), Howard never again risked letting introducing change get in the way of re-election (as he had when he introduced the GST in that first term).

Since that time nobody, from either party, has ever managed to win two elections in a row.

Julia Gillard only held onto office by her fingernails, after making a deal with independents. This, coupled with relentless internal destabilisation from Kevin Rudd, crippled her administration and ensured her government was doomed.

Tony Abbott never got a chance to stand for re-election. He was similarly destroyed by a combination of personal failings and Malcolm Turnbull's vaulting ambition.

Yet the first time Turnbull faced the voters, a bad election night and failure to win convincingly left him badly wounded. He, too, never managed to regain that initial enthusiasm and failed to keep the party together.

Scott Morrison then became the only person to hold office for a full parliamentary term - and look how that ended.

So it's a legitimate question to ask if Anthony Albanese will really manage to slip the Jonah and be able to win the next election. The first part of that equation is, of course, how much support he's got inside the party.

There are always plenty of MPs who feel they could do better if they were leading the party.

So far, however, Albanese has managed to avoid any grumbling emerging from the backbench.

No rivals have emerged putting together alternative teams and Albanese's leadership style has given ministers both the chance to run their own race while keeping a (very firm) central control over messaging.

He's managed to keep the independents onside and what's perceived as a competent government is Canberra is giving the party a boost in NSW (with the prospect of Labor governments stretching across the mainland).

There's still a long way to go, but no sign of even the beginnings of internal destabilisation.

The opposition is showing no sign of becoming a threat either. Dutton lacks the capacity to inspire: every day the Liberals waste with him in the leadership simply cements Labor's dominance.

Winning office requires either the government falling apart (which won't happen) or the ability to create a new, positive narrative to energise the country. That won't happen while Dutton's leader. He's taking the party backwards.

So what could possibly go wrong for Albanese?

Today, nothing. But two dangerous, inter-related challenges lie ahead.

The first is obvious: the economy, rising interest rates, and the chaos this will bring to (particularly) young mortgage holders in Labor-held electorates. The only lever the Reserve Bank can use to restrict inflation is to tighten rates.

The problem is that the economy isn't responding to this threat in the way it used to and there's still little sign the rises have bitten into the boom. In the meantime government policy is working in the opposite direction by loosening immigration policy and boosting spending - work that out. It's feeding the fire on one side while attempting to put it out on the other.

This is weird, but not the most serious threat Albanese faces. The real danger is far more significant. It's that he's spent too long in Canberra and immersed in his memories of growing up in council housing that he's forgotten what disadvantage actually means in today's Australia.

It's natural to focus on economic statistics because these show, in cold, hard numbers, what's really going on.

By these measures the average Aussie is actually doing pretty well: the problem is the "average" Australian doesn't exist. The figures don't reveal either the misery; the generational dysfunction; or the loss of meaning that's creeping into the country.

Take education.

Jason Clare's showing every indication of being a terrific minister. He's listening and acting. Last week he met university heads to consider equity and access for students from disadvantaged backgrounds, who are both under-represented and at increased risk of dropping out.

The problem is Clare is working within a system that's broken. He's making a difference at the edges, sure, but this isn't tackling a fundamental issue.

University education isn't structured around people. It was never designed to get young school-leavers into jobs - that's just a role it's expanded into.

It's crazy to expect people who've had difficulty succeeding at school to work at Coles while putting themselves through a three-year academic course before they can begin work.

Rather than simply expanding the number of university places (or adding to supports to prop-up the students who've been admitted), a far better solution would be to begin by admitting the system is broken.

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Then we could design new ways of transferring the right amount of knowledge. Alternatives such as a combination of short courses (allowing people to bite off small chunks of knowledge, enough to become productive) while working in their chosen industry might offer interesting, more positive pathways into the workforce.

Without addressing fundamental issues of system design, solving symptoms fails to address problems which have become embedded in the way we do things. Education represents simply one example of this underlying structural dysfunction.

The big political issue, ensuring people are satisfied, can only be addressed by creating meaningful lives. Equating financial success with happiness - personal wealth - is a mistake. Growing the economy is just a means to an end.

The only way for Albanese will guarantee his own political longevity is by tackling the failure of an economic model that isn't creating fulfilling lives.