Some are starting to call him Russia's Nelson Mandela. The former oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who is already serving eight years in jail for fraud, could receive another long stretch for embezzlement when the judge rules at the end of his second trial on Wednesday.
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Once he was Russia's richest man; once he made the mistake of trying to finance the opposition. It seems a vindictive Kremlin is determined to make an example of him and keep him out of the political picture.
The severity of the sentence will give an idea of the balance of power between the President, Dmitry Medvedev, 45, and the Prime Minister, Vladimir Putin, 58. With 15 months to go to presidential elections, the question is whether Medvedev "the moderniser" will be given the chance of a second term or whether Putin, the senior partner in the tandem act, will make a comeback.
If Judge Viktor Danilkin satisfies the prosecution, it will be an indication of Putin's strength. The prosecution has called for a sentence of 14 years, to run concurrently with the present eight-year sentence, meaning Khodorkovsky would not be free until 2017. If the sentence is shorter, keeping the former magnate out of circulation until after the 2012 election but not much beyond, it could suggest an advantage to Medvedev, a lawyer who has spoken of the importance of the rule of law.
At the latest trial, present and past government ministers spoke in Khodorkovsky's defence, saying there was no truth in the charge that he stole 218 million tonnes of oil worth $US27 billion from his own company, Yukos.
A minority of observers believe it possible that Judge Danilkin may show some independence and pronounce a verdict of not guilty. Even then, Khodorkovsky would stay in jail until October 2011 on the basis of his first conviction - enough to sideline him from the election campaign.
Khodorkovsky himself has said he expects to serve more jail time; indeed, he has said he is ready to die in jail.
"No one believes now that an acquittal is possible in a Yukos case," he said in his final statement to the court last month. "Nevertheless, I would like to speak about hope. Hope is the main thing in life.
"Two years have passed since a new president came to power and many of my compatriots have regained hope - hope that Russia will become a civilised country with a developed civil society, free of lawlessness, corruption and injustice by officials."
The Khodorkovsky case has damaged Russia's reputation and scared away investors.
One political commentator, Konstantin Sonin, evoked the Stalin era, calling the prosecution of Khodorkovsky a "show trial". It was, Sonin said, "a huge malignant tumour" that had had "a malignant effect on the overall political and economic environment in the country".
An analyst, Julian Rimmer, wrote in The Moscow Times that Russia may be facing a "Mandela moment".
"The analogy to Nelson Mandela, who was imprisoned for 27 years under South Africa's apartheid regime, may seem like a stretch," Rimmer said. "The causes they championed were diametrically opposed. Mandela was fighting for freedom from a racist government. Khodorkovsky was mostly concerned with personal enrichment. But the two cases illustrate defining moments for two nations that struggled to adopt democracy and the rule of law."
The West may consider Khodorkovsky a political prisoner but ordinary Russians have little sympathy for the former oligarch, whose case is mentioned regularly on the liberal Echo of Moscow radio.
"I'm tired of hearing the name Khodorkovsky," said one listener. "It seems he has bought the Echo of Moscow."
According to WikiLeaks, a US embassy cable from Moscow about the oligarch's plight said: "There is a widespread understanding that Khodorkovsky violated the tacit rules of the game: if you keep out of politics, you can line your pockets as much as you desire. Most Russians believe the Khodorkovsky trial is politically motivated; they simply do not care that it is."
Russian journalists continue to be concerned about human rights and to put their lives on the line. In November a prominent reporter, Oleg Kashin, was badly beaten by unknown attackers.
At least 30 attacks against journalists, including eight murders, have been registered this year and 19 murders of journalists remain unsolved since 2000, say human rights organisations.
